3rd Down Calls
On every 3rd down a team can go for it, punt or kick a field goal. We work out each team's chance of winning after each choice, then grade every call against the best one.
Team grades
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| # | Team | Grade | Calls | Went for it | Model said go | Agreed | Big misses | Win % lost per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| {{r.rank}} | {{r.grade}} | {{r.n}} | {{r.went}} | {{r.said}} | {{r.agree}} | {{r.big}} | {{r.lost}} |
Agreed counts close calls (under 1% apart) as agreeing. A big miss costs 2% or more. Win % lost per game adds up what every call gave away, divided by games. Click a team to see its calls below.
The calls
{{callsNote}}
How the grades work
Going for it uses how often teams pick up that distance (3rd-down tries, backed up by 2nd downs from the same distance) and what happens next: a fresh set of downs, or the other team's ball at the spot. Punting uses where the league's punts from that yard line leave the other team, singles included. Kicking uses the league's make rate from that distance, and what a miss usually costs. Each result goes through the same win probability model as Game Centre, with the score, time left and home field.
Calls inside the last three minutes of each half are left out, because the clock rules change and the model doesn't know about timeouts. The model doesn't know who the kicker, the quarterback or the weather is either, so treat a 1% gap as a coin flip. How win probability works